The Indian subcontinent is more than just a collection of states separated by borders and histories—it is a crucible where the world’s next great experiment in peace and prosperity could unfold, or where old rivalries could once again plunge millions into uncertainty. In this special series, we explore the pivotal roles of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and China—nations often seen at the periphery of each other’s ambitions, yet increasingly bound by the same currents of hope and crisis.
As the region stands at a crossroads, with the scars of the past still visible but the promise of collaboration within reach, the real question is whether these countries can overcome their pitfalls and realise their immense potential together. Are they the keys to a brighter, more stable future for all of South and Central Asia? Or will their internal challenges and mutual suspicions keep the subcontinent’s promise forever just out of reach?
In the following analysis, Priyajit Debsarkar examines these pressing questions and offers a lens through which we might envision a path forward—a path that demands not only pragmatism, but bold imagination.
Subcontinent, Sublimation of Prospects to Pitfalls (ABC – Part 1)
By Priyajit Debsarkar, London, UK
The Indian subcontinent is a fascinating and fragmented formation with tremendous potential for peace and prosperity; however, it remains a distant dream.
(A)fghanistan:
Afghanistan is often termed the heart of Asia. The age-old Grand Trunk Road, which ran over 3,600 km, connected the Bay of Bengal to Central Asia via Kabul. After the formal withdrawal of the United States from the war on terrorism—which culminated in Abbottabad, Pakistan—there has been a significant vacuum in Kabul. In recent times, China has stepped up diplomatic efforts to bring the Taliban and the Pakistanis onboard with the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This outreach is a double-edged attempt to curb the goodwill India still enjoys inside Afghanistan, even after the fall of the previous government. Kabul is seeking urgent investment, and New Delhi has already invested approximately $3 billion, mostly in roads, power lines, dams, hospitals, and clinics in the war-ravaged country. India has a concrete soft power imprint in Afghanistan, but that does not necessarily translate into strategic influence—as the next-door neighbour, along with China, is on a mission to counterbalance. After the Pahalgam terrorist attacks in Kashmir, it is imperative that India expand cooperation in the region, and reviving port connectivity for landlocked Afghanistan could prove to be a game changer. Kabul is also seeking multilateral avenues for recognition, but it will need to conduct internal reforms, especially regarding women and children, in order to realise its ambitions and aspirations.
(B)angladesh:
Dubbed as the “Bijou of the Bay of Bengal,” Bangladesh is a key strategic keystone and is at a historic crossroads. The Professor Dr Yunus-led administration is facing mammoth challenges internally as it deliberates delaying the proposed fresh elections, which was the only mandate the administration had. Sheikh Mujibur Rahman is the face and symbol of victory; 16th December 1971, Victory Day, marks when nearly 93,000 Pakistani forces surrendered at Dhaka Racecourse—the largest such surrender since the Second World War. By attempting to remove his legacy and erode the fundamentally pluralistic fabric of Bengali society, imposing an alien monolithic culture may provide some short-term respite for the troubled administration, but in the long run, it will be decidedly detrimental. Attempting to divert and distract attention is a manoeuvre to push the country toward a harder line of radicalisation, far from its diverse and distinct cultural identity.
Bengali culture and language were targeted by Muhammad Ali Jinnah when Urdu was imposed on East Pakistan—a terrible tragedy that unified Bengali society, resulting in the immortal 21st February 1952. These acts may seem isolated, but if one scratches beneath the surface, they are part of a much more premeditated and organised exercise to foster hate and mob violence, again highly effective for side-tracking core issues. The new regime has embarked on a journey to rewrite the achievements of the masses and expunge the failures of the defeated, as the world stood witness to one of the most gruesome genocides and violations of women and children in the twentieth century. What is now apparent is that Bangladesh 2.0 is in a desperate search for a new figure to idolise, completely blue-pencilling the Mukti Bahini and synergistic forces. There seems to be a futile effort to erase Bangabandhu (Friend of Bengal) and reincarnate Badar Bandhu (Al Badar friend), reliving the horrors of 1971.
(C)hina:
“Dripping water can penetrate the stone.” (水滴石穿 shuǐ dī shí chuān) is popular in Chinese mythology.
In today’s world of uncertainty, unpredictable tariffs can severely dent global supply chains—a harsh reality. Following a barrage of embargoes, India has also been hit by China’s decision to halt exports of neodymium, a critical element whose alloys produce extremely powerful magnets. These magnets are essential for electric vehicles, whose motors require strong, durable, and long-lasting magnetic components. The dream of a zero-emissions, carbon-neutral economy to combat climate change now faces a major setback with the pause in the export of these high-powered magnets—often referred to as the “cocaine of the tech revolution.” They are labelled “rare” not due to scarcity, but because extraction and purification are extremely expensive, difficult, and environmentally damaging. The US Geological Survey estimates that India has the third-largest reserves—almost untapped—but will need technology to extract them.
Conclusion:
In conclusion, constructive confidence-building measures will definitely prove to be an antiseptic for relations that had turned infected, post-Operation Sindoor and longstanding territorial border disputes. The general perception on the Indian side is that China had supported India’s advisory at a pivotal time, so an appropriate and dedicated course correction is required if both neighbours wish to make a fresh beginning. The need of the hour is a new, wonderful wine and an even better, broader bottle. China can recommend India in the next round of UN Security Council meetings and offer India the high chair, which could have positive resonances after the bitter truce of Operation Sindoor, considering the active role played by the PLA in supporting and equipping Pakistan.
